The US has paused military strikes against Iran for a fourth straight night as negotiators work to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

While fighting has not officially ended, both sides appear to be giving diplomacy yet another chance after weeks of escalating attacks across the Middle East. Talks are largely centered on the Strait of Hormuz:

Why pause now? Trump was reportedly briefed that escalating the conflict could further deplete the Pentagon's already strained supply of Patriot interceptors and other air defense weapons, potentially influencing the decision to pause.

Things are still fragile: Iran has not publicly committed to a peace agreement, and US officials say strikes could resume if negotiations stall.

As trading opened on Sunday, oil prices continued to retreat after reaching a two-month high last week:

But after the pause… oil prices fell again, easing fears that the conflict would disrupt global energy supplies even more. In general, traders have become more optimistic that global oil supplies will continue flowing, reducing the immediate risk of shortages.

🌎 Why is this important? If oil prices continue falling, Americans could eventually see lower gasoline prices and slower increases in transportation and shipping costs. Cheaper fuel can also reduce costs for airlines, trucking companies and manufacturers, helping ease inflation across a wide range of goods. However, those savings may take several weeks to reach consumers, and any renewed escalation in the conflict could send prices climbing again.

See what's changed, recent data, what we're watching next, and every other major story that affects you on our Watchlist… completely free.

Just as temporary tariffs previously enacted by President Trump expired, the US imposed new tariffs on dozens of trading partners last week after accusing them of using forced labor practices.

On Thursday, the Trump administration announced new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on goods from roughly 60 US trading partners, which together account for 99.4% of US imports.

While the sweeping tariffs are broad, they do include some exemptions:

Why and how can the US do this? The Trump administration says the affected countries haven't done enough to stop forced labor, an unfair trade practice, which allows the US to impose tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 (see here).

The tariffs likely won’t stop here: The US is also preparing two additional rounds of Section 301 tariffs, with one targeting countries with excess manufacturing capacity and another responding to what President Trump called the EU's "illegal and highly unethical" fines on US tech companies.

Explore a tariff tracker with interactive maps, charts, and potential impacts here.

🌎 Why does this matter? The sweeping tariffs could raise prices on a plethora of imported goods as companies pass higher import costs on to shoppers. While the policy is intended to encourage more domestic manufacturing and crack down on forced labor, consumers are likely to notice the higher prices before any long-term economic benefits.

See key data, ongoing updates, what we’re watching next, and related briefings on our Global Trade & Supply Chains index.

On Friday, more than two dozen tech giants signed an open letter urging US lawmakers not to impose broad restrictions on "open-weight" AI models, which are widely used and developed by rivals in China.

Open-weight AI models allow developers to download and run powerful AI systems on their own hardware rather than relying on a company's cloud service. Watch an explainer on how they work here.

Over the past couple of years, they’ve started gaining traction, mainly because they can be run locally. Supporters say that lowers costs, improves transparency, and helps researchers find security flaws faster.

How is that different from LLM’s like ChatGPT? Open-weight models are the exact opposite of the leading US models (like Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series), which are closed-source and proprietary.

In the open letter (read it in full here), which was signed by over 25 tech heavyweights including Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, IBM, AMD, Cisco, and dozens of other AI startups:

While they can be abused, open-weight models have their uses: AI startup Hugging Face, which was recently hacked by a rogue proprietary OpenAI model, ultimately relied on an open-weight Chinese model to defend itself after Anthropic's Fable 5 failed to identify the attacker.

In the end, it’s all a tradeoff: While supporters say open-weight models can drive innovation and prevent a monopoly on AI systems, many experts warn that making advanced models more widely available could make it easier for bad actors (like criminals or hostile governments) to create cyberattacks, scams, or other malicious AI tools.

🌎 How does this affect you? If restrictions on open-weight AI fail to be imposed, it could make advanced AI tools cheaper, more competitive, and more widely available to consumers and small businesses. At the same time, consumers could face many more cybersecurity risks and online scams.

Track the latest updates on cybersecurity, AI adoption, digital privacy, and more with our Technology index.

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Housing just can’t seem to get any more affordable. Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in nearly a year last week, adding yet another obstacle for Americans hoping to buy a home.

The increase comes as rising Treasury yields (driven in part by inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions) continue pushing borrowing costs higher. According to newly released government data:

The housing market is already sluggish: Combined with record-high home prices, the higher borrowing costs have kept home sales hovering near their lowest levels in decades, extending a housing slowdown that's lasted several years.

Things may be moving in the right direction… economists say some homeowners are finally moving despite higher rates and poor affordability, a trend dubbed "rate-lock fatigue,” but demand is still well below normal.

🌎 Why should you care? Every increase in mortgage rates raises the monthly cost of owning a home. Higher borrowing costs can force buyers to lower their budgets, postpone a purchase, or rent for longer.

Additionally, if geopolitical tensions (such as the Strait of Hormuz shutdown) continue pushing oil prices and Treasury yields higher, mortgage rates could keep climbing, delaying any meaningful improvement in housing affordability.

We’re tracking a wide range of topics on our Watchlist. Click below for new developments on the housing market, housing affordability, inflation, and more.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 187,000 last week, the lowest weekly total in almost six decades.

According to a new report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (see here), employers are still holding onto workers despite concerns over tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and slower economic growth.

Overall, the labor market has been pretty resilient:

That being said, the job market is cooling… just not cracking. Hiring slowed in June, with employers adding only 57,000 jobs. However, while hiring has slowed over the past couple of years, layoffs are still unusually rare. That’s mainly because many employers that struggled to find workers after the pandemic are choosing to keep current employees rather than risk being understaffed if demand picks up again.

That’s good news for workers: Historically low layoffs mean most workers should be able to enjoy strong job security, even as some large companies announce targeted job cuts across the tech, automotive, and retail industries.

The flip side of that is… the labor market's strength also gives the Federal Reserve less reason to lower interest rates quickly.

🌎 Why is this important? If employment continues to be this resilient, Americans could face elevated borrowing costs on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards while the Fed focuses on keeping inflation under control.

> Nearly 90 years after Amelia Earhart disappeared, researchers are launching a new expedition to investigate what they believe could be the wreckage of her missing plane in a remote Pacific lagoon.

> Yale researchers have uncovered evidence of a forgotten "golden age" of languages, finding ancient societies spoke tens of thousands of languages around 1,000 to 3,000 years ago.

> Engineers have developed the "Phantom Twist," a drone that spins up to 25 times per second, making it nearly invisible to the human eye. Unlike earlier approaches that relied on camouflage, the design uses rapid motion to reduce its visibility.

> A retired OB-GYN celebrated his 90th birthday by becoming the oldest person ever to climb Mount Kilimanjaro, hoping to inspire others that age is just a number.

> The newest trend among kids and adults alike is collecting, trading, and hunting for rare versions of squishy toys, fueling a booming collectibles market.