Oil prices jumped above $109 a barrel this week as repeated attacks on tankers and energy facilities across the Middle East increased fears that the war with Iran could keep disrupting global fuel supplies.

The latest spike follows a widening battle over one of the world’s most important shipping routes, the Strait of Hormuz:

If oil stays above $100… it can put even more pressure on already high gas prices. Just this week, the national average for a gallon of gas hit $4.27 while diesel hit a record $5.85 per gallon, topping its previous high from 2022. Fuel costs alone have already cost American consumers over $100 billion (see previous briefing).

And that’s not good news for oil prices. Over the past week, the US has struck at least eight Iranian oil tankers (including one near the major oil hub of Kharg Island), while Iran has attacked 10 ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

As for other escalations this week:

Meanwhile… as high energy prices weigh on voters, President Trump said high oil prices that surged due to escalations in the Iran war won’t come down until after midterm elections.

🌎 Why is this important? Beyond the obvious impact on what you pay at the pump, higher oil prices also raise transportation costs that can eventually filter into groceries, deliveries, and other everyday purchases.

If that keeps inflation elevated, Americans could face a second squeeze as the Fed keeps interest rates higher for longer, prolonging expensive mortgages, auto loans, and other borrowing.

Gas prices are only one piece of the puzzle. Track how total energy costs are trending on the Watchlist (hint: it’s not pretty).

Canada officially imposed $20 billion in retaliatory tariffs on Tuesday, targeting US products like steel, cosmetics, hockey sticks, and appliances in response to earlier American tariffs on the country.

The US quickly responded with additional tariffs and plans to ban certain Canadian imports, including motorcycles, alcohol, and some dairy products.

Canada’s levies come after trade talks hit a wall (which led both nations to blame each other for the breakdown) and largely mirror duties the US placed on Canadian goods last month. See a timeline here.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mark Carney has been pushing Canada to rely less on the US, even though it remains the country’s largest trading partner:

Canada distancing itself could have consequences… even after the tariffs are gone. Businesses on both sides have built supply chains around the assumption that US-Canada trade would be stable. If Canadian companies permanently redirect investments and customers toward Europe or other markets, industries (particularly steel, agriculture, energy, and auto) could suffer greatly.

There are already signs this is happening: Canada recently announced a $4.7 billion project to build new passenger rail cars domestically that have historically been built in the US.

🌎 Why does this matter? The escalating trade war could leave Americans paying more for fewer options. As Canadians are pushed toward non-US goods due to a growing boycott of American products, US farmers and manufacturers will certainly feel the effects, including potential job losses.

On the Watchlist: Global Trade & Supply Chains · ↗ Escalating

Global trade directly affects the prices Americans pay, the products they can buy, and the jobs available to them, while supply chains determine inflation, manufacturing costs, delivery times, product availability, and more.

See the full outlook →

🏚 Even “affordable” dwellings are still sitting empty. As the poorest Americans struggle to find anywhere they can afford to live, a federal agency found the country has just 4 million affordable rentals for roughly 11 million extremely low-income households, but many of them are abandoned. The problem is that much of the affordable housing being built targets moderate-income renters rather than those at the bottom, while only about one in four families eligible for housing vouchers actually receives one. Track this topic →

💵 Nearly 1 million Americans will get Obamacare refunds. The news comes after the Trump administration said consumers were overcharged through fees tied to the Obamacare marketplace, and checks will be sent out in October. Only those who bought coverage through Healthcare.gov in select states but did not receive premium subsidies are eligible.

💼 Americans are increasingly worried they won’t be able to find a job. A New York Fed survey found Americans now see a 44.4% chance that unemployment will rise over the next year (the highest reading since April 2020), while confidence in finding a new job after being laid off also fell. Households also reported feeling worse about their current and future finances and access to credit, which could translate into more cautious spending and borrowing. Track this topic →

Home furniture brand Blu Dot blew up on CTV with help from Roku Ads Manager. Here’s how:

After a test campaign reached 211,000 households and achieved 1,010% ROAS, the brand went all in to promote its annual sales event. It removed age and income constraints to expand reach and shifted budget to custom audiences and retargeting, where intent was strongest.

The results speak for themselves. As Blu Dot increased their investment by 10x, ROAS jumped to 2,308% and more page-view conversions surpassed 50,000.

“For CTV campaigns, Roku has been a top performer,” said Claire Folkestad, Paid Media Strategist, Blu Dot. “Comping to our other platforms, we have seen really strong ROAS… and highly efficient CPMs, lower than any other CTV partner we've worked with.”

Using Roku Ads Manager, the campaign moved from a pilot to a permanent performance engine for the brand.

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Who needs a four-year degree when you have two working hands? For young Americans who skipped college, this is one of the strongest job markets in decades.

Partly because almost all of them have jobs. In the past 20 years, unemployment among those aged 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has only been lower twice.

What’s unusual, though, is what’s happening on the other side. According to a new analysis from the Burning Glass Institute:

What’s flipping the script? America has more college-educated workers than ever, leaving many competing for a limited number of white-collar jobs. At the same time, the country faces a major shortage of skilled tradespeople, including electricians, plumbers, and construction workers, even as thousands of those jobs remain open.

The pattern is already visible in the unemployment data: Gad Levanon, chief economist at the BGI, told the WSJ that the more physical and hands-on an occupation is, the stronger its job market tends to look compared with its own historical average.

🌎 Why should you care? If the trend continues, skipping a four-year degree could become a more financially attractive option for young Americans, allowing some to start earning sooner and avoid student debt. It could also give millions of workers more leverage to find better-paying jobs, negotiate raises, or switch employers as businesses compete for a shrinking supply of hands-on workers.

On the Watchlist: College vs. Skilled Trades · ↗ Escalating

Demand for skilled trades remains strong while many college graduates face slower wage growth and higher debt burdens. Many are starting to believe the trades offer a better return on investment.

See the full outlook →

Who would’ve thought chronic AI use could diminish your cognitive capabilities? A new educational report found some of the best evidence yet that the technology could be hurting children’s learning.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) newest flagship report (which observed 760,000 15-year-olds across 91 countries) found students who constantly use AI for schoolwork do worse on tests than those who rarely or never use it.

The gap was particularly noticeable among those who use it to write assignments:

Is that solely because of AI? It’s complicated. The OECD warned that students who struggle academically may be more likely to turn to AI in the first place, and factors like school quality, motivation, and study habits also affect the results.

The best performers used AI… but in the right way. Those who occasionally used the tech for things like summarization typically outperformed very frequent users and those who barely used it. That suggests the problem may be less about AI itself and more about whether students use it to assist their thinking or replace it.

🌎 How does this affect you? The findings could push American schools toward stricter rules on when students can use AI while putting more emphasis on teaching kids how to question and evaluate AI-generated answers rather than simply accepting them.

Track the latest updates on cybersecurity, AI adoption, digital privacy, and more with our Technology index.

> An AI-generated drug originally developed for lung disease may also slow aging, with patients’ estimated biological ages dipping by up to six years.

> Yet another museum heist took place at the Louvre, with two thieves stealing a pair of Renoir paintings from a museum in southern France on Tuesday.

> OpenAI said this week an unreleased AI model has solved one of mathematics’ seven legendary Millennium Prize Problems, cracking a fluid-dynamics puzzle that had resisted mathematicians for roughly 90 years.

> Scientists are searching for “hair” near black holes, developing a new test to determine whether some are hiding extra matter that leaves a fingerprint in gravitational waves.

> Movie theaters just had their biggest summer ever, with US ticket sales reaching $4.76 billion and narrowly surpassing a box-office record that had stood since 2013.