Military assaults between the US and Iran have intensified in recent days, with the Islamic Republic targeting several military bases and accusing the US of a war crime.

The US struck Iranian military targets along the country’s southern coast Tuesday, killing 18, after attacks on commercial ships. Iran responded with strikes targeting US bases in Jordan, Iraq, and Kuwait (see previous issue).

Iran says the US bombed a wedding: Iran’s Foreign Ministry accused the US of committing a war crime after a US missile reportedly struck a home hosting a wedding in Kuhestak, near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media said four civilians were killed and more than 60 were wounded. See footage here (warning: sensitive content).

What happened to negotiations? Shortly after its strikes on commercial shipping vessels this week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran would “immediately reciprocate” if the US began following the outline of the former peace deal. Then, earlier this week, President Trump said an agreement with Iran “isn’t worth the paper it’s written on” and warned of heavier strikes if Tehran continues to strike commercial ships and US bases.

🌎 Why is this important? Renewed fighting is already hitting Americans at the pump, with the national average for regular gas reaching about $4.12 per gallon as oil prices surge. If the conflict prolongs further, higher energy costs could also push up airfare, shipping, and everyday goods.

We’re tracking this on the Watchlist: US-Iran Tensions · ↗ Escalating

The war has a major impact on global energy prices and is a key driver of rising gas costs. How the Strait of Hormuz is handled also has major geopolitical and economic consequences.

See the full outlook →

Investors around the world are selling off government bonds as they grow increasingly worried about inflation, massive government debts, and the possibility of further interest-rate hikes.

Those are the same reasons that investors ditched US Treasury bonds recently, with inflation being the key concern, especially after the US and Iran resumed attacks. Now, those fears are at a boiling point.

According to Bloomberg, average government bond yields (which rise as bond prices fall) across G7 countries have climbed to their highest level in over a quarter century this week:

What about the US? Treasury yields edged up after reaching their highest level since 2007 last month. At the same time, traders now see nearly a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike at its next meeting, almost double the odds from a week ago. See the live odds here.

This is important even if you never buy a government bond: Treasury yields serve as a foundation for borrowing costs throughout the economy, meaning their rise is already feeding into mortgages and other loans.

🌎 Why does this matter? The global surge in bond yields could keep mortgages, auto loans, and other borrowing costs elevated for Americans. If yields keep rising, the squeeze could make it even more expensive to borrow.

On the (free) Watchlist, track the latest developments in interest rates, a current graph, and a timeline of how things are unfolding.

👨‍🎓 Colleges are running out of students. After the number of 18-year-olds peaked last year, US colleges are bracing for an “enrollment cliff” as undergraduate enrollment is projected to fall 13% over the next 15 years. Even major schools, like Syracuse University, fell short of their enrollment targets this fall. This could translate to more financial aid and bargaining power, but struggling schools may also respond by cutting programs, raising prices, or even closing altogether. Track this topic ->

💰 Google will not be forced to sell part of its company. Despite being found to have illegally monopolized parts of the digital ad market, a federal judge ruled Google does not have to sell its online advertising business, but will still have to change its advertising practices. This means the tech giant will maintain its chokehold on how online ads are priced and how publishers make money.

🕶 Meta is banning people from using its smart glasses. Meta is stepping up its privacy protections after seeing how easy it was to secretly record people. The glasses already use an LED to signal when the camera is rolling, but users could cover the light after recording began without shutting off the camera. Meta said it has closed that loophole, removed thousands of posts, and cracked down on instructions for bypassing the safeguard. Critics say it’s a step in the right direction, but the tech still has major privacy concerns.

Holiday planning is already in full gear, and the pressure is on for ecommerce brands to generate demand.

Creator affiliate marketing can help by connecting more of your marketing spend to measurable performance. But creators are already locking in their holiday content calendars 90 days out, and brands who wait too long lose the runway they need to build momentum before the holidays.

The 90-Day Holiday Sprint is a practical guide from Levanta that breaks down building a creator affiliate program with checkpoints at Day 30, Day 60, and Day 90, so your program is live and capturing holiday demand instead of scrambling to catch up.

Inside, you’ll find how to:

Download the Free Guide

No wonder colleges are having a hard time finding students. For decades, most young people believed the safest path toward a stable, well-paying career was by getting a four-year degree. That is no longer the case.

According to Jobber's annual Blue Collar Report, young people are starting to think the best way to have a long, lucrative career is by finding jobs that don’t cram you in a cubicle:

It’s not just kids’ views that are shifting: Among Gen Z parents, 45% say college is no longer the safest route to long-term employment. Additionally, over 50% of Gen Alpha parents view the skilled trades as a better investment than college, while only 18% favor college.

The changing views aren’t necessarily a rejection of college itself, but more so an adaptation to working in a world with AI. The idea that a career should be AI-proof is also shared among parents and their children:

That makes for an unusual reversal: Some careers once seen by older generations as the “safe” choice no longer feel as secure, with 68% of parents saying AI has changed how they view the stability of white-collar jobs.

🌎 How does this affect you? A larger supply of skilled workers could eventually help reduce labor bottlenecks that make housing, construction, repairs, and major infrastructure projects more expensive. That would relieve some of the labor costs both businesses and consumers are currently facing.

On the Watchlist: College vs. Skilled Trades · ↗ Escalating

Recent developments we’ve tracked here:

A bipartisan House Intelligence Committee report is warning that AI could create national-security threats that US intelligence agencies aren't currently prepared to handle.

Released ahead of the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, the report (read here) compares the rapid development of AI with the “failure of imagination” that investigators later identified as one of the key oversights before 9/11.

According to the House Intelligence Committee:

AI itself isn’t the issue; it’s what people do with it. Increasingly advanced models give hackers, terrorists, and hostile governments access to expertise and capabilities that typically require highly trained specialists, making large-scale attacks cheaper (and much easier) to carry out.

We’ve already seen an example of this: The release comes only a week after a massive Chinese cyberattack breached several major government agencies, including the DOJ, the Senate, NASA, and more. Lawmakers say the FBI reportedly opens a new China-linked counterintelligence case roughly every 10 to 12 hours.

What is the US doing about this? Congress is pushing legislation that would significantly expand intelligence and cybersecurity agencies’ access to top-of-the-line AI models so they can find vulnerabilities and identify potential threats before adversaries do.

🌎 Why should you care? As AI makes widespread cyberattacks easier to carry out, foreign adversaries can increasingly threaten the systems Americans rely on every day. At the same time, proposed legislation could establish new security standards for autonomous AI, which could lead to higher prices for foreign tech and bans on some widely used hardware, such as routers.

Track the latest updates on cybersecurity, AI adoption, digital privacy, and more with our Technology index.

> Party balloons have become an unexpected victim of the Iran war, as disruptions to Qatar’s helium production push prices higher and force suppliers to prioritize critical uses like MRI machines and microchips.

> Scientists may have found a way to kill chemotherapy-resistant breast cancer without chemotherapy, using two drugs that first weaken tumor cells and then shut down their last line of defense.

> Physicists are investigating a puzzling signal that could be the first direct detection of dark matter, though researchers say no known particle fully explains it.

> GLP-1 drugs may have anti-aging effects, according to new research showing older female mice treated with semaglutide lived 12% longer than those that didn’t receive the drug.

> Researchers found that reheating clay pottery can reveal a “timestamp” encoded by Earth’s magnetic field when the object was first fired, providing another tool for detecting counterfeits.