Three US service members have been killed in Iranian strikes since Friday, making it one of the deadliest periods for US forces in the conflict so far.

The losses come as the US continues expanding its military campaign against Iran. According to US military officials:

Since the conflict began in February, at least 17 US service members have been killed, and more than 430 have been injured. Iranian casualties are estimated to exceed 3,600, with reports indicating at least 50 people were killed in strikes in recent weeks.

In response to the rising casualties, the US is reinforcing its military presence across the Middle East, especially in Iran. As officials prepare for the possibility of a larger conflict in the region:

Countries close to Iran want to stay out of it: In recent months, several Gulf states have limited US access to their airspace. That’s partially because countries like Jordan, which receives a significant amount of US foreign aid, have continued allowing US military operations but have also faced an uptick in Iranian strikes.

🌎 Why is this important? The growing number of U.S. troop casualties could increase pressure for either stronger military action or renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. If the fighting continues, Americans may feel the effects through higher energy prices, increased defense spending, and greater economic uncertainty.

This story is still developing. See live updates, timelines, previous briefings, and more on the US-Iran war and other geopolitical conflicts on our “World” index.

Similar to a shopaholic who accidentally peeked at their credit card bill, consumers are suddenly taking a harder look at what's in their grocery carts.

Americans are increasingly cutting back at grocery stores as years of higher food prices continue to strain household budgets. While total grocery sales have slightly increased since products are more expensive, shoppers are still buying fewer individual items.

According to a new analysis from Bain & Company using NielsenIQ grocery data:

It’s a shocking shift: In June of last year, grocery unit sales actually rose 0.1% compared to June 2024, despite higher prices. The recent decline suggests that several years of high inflation may finally be changing how consumers shop.

About 80% of Americans are trying to cut spending in at least one area as high prices continue to flood local markets:

So what are Americans doing about it? They’re budgeting. Many are buying more store-brand products, switching to discount retailers, couponing, deal hunting, and, overall, reducing purchases of snacks, beverages, and other nonessential items.

🌎 Why does this matter? Even though inflation stopped rising last month (see previous issue), economists expect energy prices to begin rising again due to the renewed war with Iran, pushing inflation back up.

Today's briefing is just one update. We'll continue adding new developments, official data releases, historical signals, and the events most likely to affect you in our live Watchlist.

For decades, economists expected baby boomers to sell their large family homes in retirement, freeing up housing for younger buyers. However, many of them are actually doing the opposite.

Rather than downsizing as forecasted, boomers are purchasing even larger homes or expanding their existing ones. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

It helps that they have all of the purchasing power: Boomers also account for roughly 42% of all US home buyers, the largest share of any generation, and collectively hold around $110 trillion in wealth, per the WSJ.

That wealth also gives them an advantage… allowing boomers to pay cash or make significant upgrades. Financial advisers say more retirees are now budgeting for their "dream home" instead of planning to reduce housing costs, while others are reluctant to sell because they'd face higher housing costs elsewhere or large capital-gains taxes after decades of appreciation.

🌎 Why should you care? Many boomers are either buying bigger houses or simply staying put and renovating, leaving fewer family-sized homes available for younger buyers already facing high prices and elevated mortgage rates.

At a time when the median price of an existing home has hit a record high, the trend is another factor limiting housing supply and could keep affordability challenges in place for years to come.

Today's briefing is just one update. We'll continue adding new developments, official data releases, historical signals, and the events most likely to affect you in our live Watchlist.

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Silicon Valley got a surprise last week when Chinese AI company Moonshot introduced Kimi K3, a new model that can outperform many leading US systems while also being cheaper to run.

It’s the latest development in an ongoing AI war between the US and China.

Early test results suggest Kimi is doing much better than leading models on several key categories, though it’s worth mentioning independent testing is still ongoing.

According to early benchmarks that were provided by Moonshot:

That’s not all it’s good at: Kimi is also supposedly better at coding, reasoning, and complex knowledge tasks, highlighting how quickly Chinese AI companies are catching up despite US export restrictions on advanced chips.

Did I mention it’s cheaper? Moonshot is also undercutting its rivals on price, charging businesses $15 per million output tokens, versus $30 for GPT-5.6 Sol and $50 for Claude Fable 5.

China’s battle with leading US models has essentially been an increasingly competitive game of tug-of-war in recent years. Moonshot isn’t the only Chinese AI model to spook the industry:

Is China even playing fair? Many companies (and officials) don’t think so. Anthropic accused Chinese tech giant Alibaba, an investor in Moonshot, of trying to replicate Claude's capabilities to train its own AI models. OpenAI has made similar allegations against DeepSeek.

🌎 How does this affect you? China's latest AI breakthrough could speed up the global AI race, leading to smarter and less expensive AI tools for consumers and businesses. It may also encourage companies to adopt AI faster, making AI skills increasingly valuable while raising new questions about technology policy and global competition.

Get more insights on global tech updates with our index on the Watchlist, completely free.

With the rise of remote work, stricter HR policies, and generational divides regarding professional boundaries, office relationships have become far less common, especially among Gen Z.

I guess people are just locking in after clocking in. Surveys suggest that workplace romance is now a relic of a bygone era:

That’s a big shift from the late 2000s. In 2008, 40% of people surveyed by The Harris Poll said they had gone out with a coworker.

So, what changed? Attitudes, mainly. Many companies now have blanket bans on office dating, and HR sexual assault training has increased following the MeToo movement. Plus, concerns over professional risks and the explosion of online dating all seem to have contributed.

Maybe your office should be the new matchmaker: A NYT opinion article argues that, despite the risks, the workplace may be one of the few remaining places where adults naturally meet potential romantic partners. About 40% of office romances lead to marriage, according to research cited in the essay.

🌎 Why does this matter? Workplace dating could become more common as Americans grow tired of dating apps and spend more time back in the office, which could create conflicts of interest and career risks if employers and workers do not set clear boundaries. It may also push employers to clarify rules around disclosure, power imbalances, and favoritism.

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