Just a day after President Donald Trump indefinitely extended the US-Iran ceasefire, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it seized two commercial cargo ships and fired on a third.

Iran’s actions followed the US seizure of an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week, which is part of Washington's naval blockade on the key shipping route. Then, just yesterday:

The new escalations are muddying what was already a fragile ceasefire:

The death toll is only increasing: Nearly 3,400 people have been killed in Iran since the war began on Feb. 28, along with 2,200 in Lebanon and 32 in Israel. Thirteen US service members have also been killed.

The Trump administration has launched a new system allowing businesses to apply for refunds on over $175 billion worth of tariffs that were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court earlier this year.

The tariffs, which were originally imposed under emergency powers, affected imports from dozens of countries and were mostly paid by hundreds of thousands of US businesses.

Now, the federal government is required to return up to $175 billion in collected duties:

Companies may have to wait a while to get their payments: The government estimates refunds will take 60 to 90 days to process, but technical challenges due to heavy demand could cause delays. While some may be issued within months, more complex cases could take years, prompting some businesses to sell their claims to third parties and skip the process altogether.

Forget the companies, will you get your money back? Well, since the new system only applies to businesses that originally paid the tariffs, individual Americans likely won’t get money back, even if higher prices indirectly hit them due to those tariffs.

It seems the doomscrolling machine is getting some productive use. Gen Z students are increasingly using TikTok as part of their college application process, mostly forgoing traditional sources like school counselors and official websites.

For many students, TikTok has expanded access and become a discovery tool, helping them find opportunities that might not appear through traditional channels. According to a new survey:

How does that compare to traditional sources? TikTok soared far ahead of guidance counselors, who took a backseat at 19%, and lags slightly behind college financial aid offices, at 28%.

However, and you might want to sit down before you read this, TikTok isn’t always accurate: About 1 in 3 students say they’ve encountered misleading or false scholarship information on the platform, including “free” programs that actually charged application fees and exaggerated how much they’d pay out. On top of that, only 27% of students say they always double-check application information before applying.

A few weeks ago, investors were panicking. They were worried about war, inflation, and the potential bursting of a tech bubble.

My, how things have changed. Buyers surged back in a historic rally, leaving many dazed and confused.

As a result, the data isn’t lining up.

Short-term momentum has been strong. But under the surface, participation among stocks is weak and financial conditions are tightening.

Our probability engine now shows just a 48% chance the S&P 500 is higher a year from now. That’s down from nearly 90% only a few weeks ago.

What this means: This isn’t a high-confidence environment. There could still be upside, but with significantly less margin for error. This is typically when it makes sense to:

This is the kind of framework we use in Capital Context - we look at probabilities and base rates instead of reacting to headlines and narratives.

The Trump administration is reportedly in “advanced talks” to supply a major financing package for Spirit Airlines as the budget carrier faces an impending collapse.

As Spirit faces mounting financial pressure and the risk of bankruptcy (again), Trump suggested he would “love somebody to buy” the company and indicated the government would step in if necessary. But what would that look like?

The proposal has garnered some mixed opinions:

Regardless, investors like the idea: After the news broke that Uncle Sam could step in to help the struggling airline, Spirit’s stock skyrocketed by more than 122%. As of writing, it is up nearly 330%.

Spirit has typically made its money by targeting customers who don’t want to spend $8,000 on a four-hour flight, but recently, flyers have been willing to spend extra for premium perks, like more legroom and comfortable seating.

But weak demand has been the least of its problems lately:

Dive deeper into Spirit’s struggles here (via YouTube).

United Airlines saw the vision… as CEO Scott Kirby talked to Trump about potentially merging with Spirit last week, but antitrust experts warned it would drive up prices and reduce competition.

The Trump administration has officially moved to reclassify cannabis from a Schedule I drug to Schedule III, marking one of the most significant changes to federal cannabis policy in decades.

Marijuana has been classified as a Schedule I drug since 1970 (see history), next to others like heroin, ecstasy, LSD, and other substances considered to have no accepted medical use and high abuse potential.

Now, weed will become a Schedule III drug, alongside common prescription medications, ketamine, and other medically useful substances. The relaxed approach is also expected to:

However, the move stops short of full legalization: Recreational marijuana will remain illegal at the federal level, and the new classification does not automatically change criminal penalties or allow unrestricted interstate sales.

It comes on the heels of an earlier drug policy changes: On Saturday, Trump signed an executive order to accelerate research into the therapeutic potential of psychedelics, including ibogaine, for treating mental health disorders.

Agents can generate code. Getting it right for your system, team conventions, and past decisions is the hard part – you end up wasting time and tokens in correction loops.

MCPs give agents access to information but not understanding. The teams pulling ahead use a context engine to give agents exactly what they need.

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> Scientists gave salmon small amounts of cocaine and found the fish became far more active and (predictably) behaved more erratically, swimming up to nearly twice as far as they do without the drug.

> The largest US study of teen brain development found that adolescents who use cannabis show slower growth in memory, attention, and thinking skills compared to their peers.

> The world’s most important chipmaking machine, built by ASML and costing up to $400 million, has inspired a rare, employee-only Lego version that’s now even harder to get than the real thing.

> NASA has officially completed its Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, a next-generation observatory designed to map the universe up to 100 times faster than Hubble and hunt for thousands of new planets.

> Red Lobster is bringing back its infamous Endless Shrimp deal, even though the promotion previously cost the company about $11 million in just a few months and was cited as a main reason the chain went bankrupt.

> The world’s largest condom producer, Karex, said it plans to raise prices by 20–30% in the coming months due to supply chain disruptions tied to the Iran war.