The US struck Iran for the first time in more than a month on Sunday, snapping a weeks-long break in fighting as negotiations fell through.

US Central Command says Iranian forces were preparing rockets capable of deploying sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz, which have been used throughout the year to prevent ships from traversing the critical waterway (what kind of mines does Iran use?).

The US then carried out what it called a “limited strike against an imminent threat to commercial shipping,” marking the first US attack on Iran since July 29. Shortly after:

The mining seemed to be planned: The US had just finished clearing sea mines from the Strait's international shipping routes last week, leading President Trump to announce a “zero tolerance” policy and warn that Iranian vessels that try to place new mines would be destroyed.

While clearing the Strait should help increase traffic in theory, it doesn't necessarily solve the problem if Iran still has enough missiles, drones, boats, and mines to keep threatening ships moving through the waterway.

To keep leverage, Iran can just keep doing what its doing:

That’s already happening: Commercial traffic is far below normal, and an unidentified projectile (presumably from Iran) struck a tanker near Oman on Saturday. Over the weekend, traffic in the strait reportedly fell to as low as five ships per day, though some vessels may have their tracking systems switched off for security.

That doesn’t help America… or oil prices. Brent crude climbed 2.7% yesterday and closed above $90 per barrel.

🌎 Why is this important? The renewed fighting could raise gas prices again if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continue to get disrupted. A prolonged conflict would lead to higher airfare, transportation, and shipping costs.

See what's changed, recent data, what we're watching next, and every other major story that affects you on our Watchlist.

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President Trump announced a sweeping agreement that gives the US government majority control over Venezuela's 65 billion barrels worth of untapped oil reserves.

That’s more than the US currently has in its own reserves.

On Friday, Trump announced on social media that the US struck a deal to secure access to about one-fifth of Venezuela’s proven reserves and make the US a stakeholder in a new private company overseeing the fields.

According to the WSJ, the massive oil deal will:

While having the oil is one thing… obtaining 65 billion barrels is another, since it won’t exactly get shipped straight to American gas stations. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure needs heavy investment (and years of work) to extract the energy source, meaning it could be a while before you get it at the pump.

Well, like most hot-button issues, it depends on who you ask. From the Trump administration’s perspective, the deal will significantly increase the US’ oil supply, which is sitting at its lowest levels in decades.

Some lawmakers disagree… saying that the deal raises concerns about whether Washington’s decision to oust former President Nicolás Maduro in January was driven by Venezuela’s oil reserves or the drug trafficking charges brought against him.

What does Venezuela think? Acting President Delcy Rodríguez said the agreement could bring tens of billions of dollars in new investment to the country, create thousands of jobs, generate $209 billion in tax revenue, and help modernize the country’s aging oil infrastructure.

🌎 Will this lower gas prices? The deal will lower gas prices… eventually. By giving the US access to a huge new source of crude, it should offer a supply cushion against future global oil disruptions (like the war in Iran).

On the Watchlist: Household Energy Costs · ↗ Escalating

Energy costs remain stubbornly high for consumers and businesses. The administration is taking steps to alleviate the pressure, but the Iran war is keeping oil prices high.

What we’re watching next: Whether the two governments fully execute the agreement and development begins.

See the full outlook →

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Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his first major Jackson Hole speech to deliver a stark warning, saying the Fed will have some “work to do” if inflation doesn’t calm soon.

It was the most Warsh has revealed since taking the Fed’s top job, despite arguing that the central bank should keep its plans under wraps. Read his speech in full here.

Analysts translated his ever-vague language to mean:

Why does Warsh want to keep the deets to himself? Warsh generally thinks the Fed can say too much. In his view, constantly signaling what it may do risks muddying the waters, and markets should help shape the Fed’s thinking (not the other way around).

So, what are the chances the Fed cuts rates? Shortly after he spoke, traders raised the odds of a rate hike at next month’s meeting from 35% to 58%. The chances now sit at over 68% (see live data).

The interest rate that has the most impact on the most people is the 10-year Treasury. And that continues to flirt with 15-year highs (see it on the Watchlist).

Watch an explainer on how raising interest rates can help tame inflation here.

🌎 Why does this matter? Warsh's warning that inflation is sitting too high could mean Americans will have to wait even longer for high mortgage, car loan, and other borrowing costs to come down. Not to mention, rates could rise again if prices don't cool.

American and United added new overseas routes and boosted service to existing destinations this week, joining Delta in expanding their international footprints.

Instead of pandering only to major travel hubs, airlines are now targeting the roads less traveled:

Why the international expansion? Americans are traveling abroad in record numbers and venturing farther off the beaten path. Airlines say travelers are increasingly booking multi-stop trips to lesser-known destinations and extending vacation season well beyond summer. Plus, international travellers tend to pay more for premium upgrades.

Having a bigger plane also helps: Traditionally, airlines have leaned on large wide-body aircraft for transatlantic flights, but that’s considerably harder on a route with fewer travellers. So, most of these new routes are using the Airbus A321XLR, a smaller single-aisle aircraft capable of flying long distances.

🌎 Why should you care? The expansion could make overseas travel more convenient by giving nonstop access to destinations that usually require connecting flights. Smaller long-range aircraft could also open the door to more direct international routes in the future, giving travelers more options and potentially increasing competition for their airfare dollars.

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