/ International Affairs
Tensions rise between US and Iran as oil prices hit 4-year high
Fadel Senna / Getty Images
The US and Iran are locked in a high-stakes standoff centered on the Strait of Hormuz, with escalating tensions driving oil to its highest price since 2022. It comes nearly three weeks into the now indefinitely extended ceasefire.
What’s going on now?
As the US maintains its blockade of Iran’s oil exports and Iran refuses to withdraw its presence in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes, the two sides appear locked in a stalemate.
Efforts to reopen the critical waterway are being complicated by stalled negotiations as both sides remain entrenched in their positions:
The US is demanding that Iran must end its nuclear program, which it refuses to halt.
Washington also wants Iran to open the strait and ensure free navigation, but Tehran is using it as leverage and tying it to broader demands.
To try to compel the nation to come to the negotiating table, President Donald Trump was reportedly briefed on several new military strikes on Iran yesterday, one of which involved deploying its “Dark Eagle” hypersonic missile (see video) for the first time, prompting global oil prices to spike to multi-year highs.
Looking forward: Iran insists it won’t negotiate under pressure and has threatened a “long and painful” response if the US renews any military attacks.
Why does this matter?
As long as the strait remains blocked, oil prices will stay elevated (which have already surged past $120/barrel), meaning Americans are likely to pay more at the pump and keep facing higher costs for many common goods. However, if a deal is reached, oil supply could stabilize and help bring down gas prices and inflation within weeks.
We’re tracking this issue live on NextGen+. Click the button below to see its status, momentum, and other key developments.
/ Government
SCOTUS to decide how Americans’ movements are tracked
Aaron Schwartz / Bloomberg via Getty Images
Earlier this week, the Supreme Court heard arguments on whether police can access cellphone location data, potentially shaping how millions of Americans' movements are tracked.
The case is one of several recent cases that could change how Americans vote, share data, eat, and manage their crops.
What’s the rundown?
In 2019, a bank was robbed in Virginia. With no leads, investigators got a warrant for Google data on devices within 150 meters of the bank around the time of the robbery, which led to the arrest of Okello Chatrie, who is currently serving nearly 12 years in prison.
The warrant used to collect the data, called a geofence warrant, allows police to request data on all devices within a certain area and time frame, even when no specific suspect has been identified.
The case raises a hotly debated legal question:
Critics argue that geofence warrants act like a digital dragnet, sweeping up data from many innocent people who were simply nearby.
The government, however, contends that users voluntarily share location data with companies like Google, which may reduce their expectation of privacy.
What does SCOTUS think? Several Supreme Court justices expressed concern during arguments, questioning whether such tools could enable authorities to track people at sensitive locations like churches or political events. The court’s decision is expected sometime this summer.
That’s not the only important case: On Wednesday, the Supreme Court limited the Voting Rights Act, making it easier for states to redraw maps without requiring majority-minority districts unless intentional discrimination is proven. Earlier this week, it also reviewed cases on immigrant protections and whether federal law overrides state cancer-warning requirements for certain weedkillers.
Why is this important?
If the Court allows broad data requests, it could expand law enforcement surveillance and weaken digital privacy, but if it restricts them, Americans may gain stronger protections over how their phone location data is accessed and used.
/ International Affairs
The UAE leaves OPEC, a massive blow for the oil cartel
Fadal Senna / Getty Images
Earlier this week, the United Arab Emirates announced it will leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the powerful oil syndicate that controls over half of the world’s oil exports.
A crude breakup
OPEC coordinates its 12-member countries’ oil production to set global prices, and the UAE’s sudden exit, which is set to take effect today, will deal them a significant blow:
Before the Iran war forced the country to reduce oil shipments, the UAE produced 3.6 million barrels per day, or 12% of the group’s total output, making it OPEC’s third largest producer of oil.
It now plans to ramp up output to 5 million barrels per day by 2027 as demand for the liquid gold rises.
Why leave the oil cartel? The UAE said it is leaving OPEC now since it will have the least disruptive impact, as oil prices are at multi-year highs, and to gain more control over its oil production decisions. It is worth noting that the country is also locked in a heated rivalry with Saudi Arabia, which is the effective leader of OPEC (watch video overview).
Why shoud you care?
The UAE’s exit weakens OPEC’s ability to control oil supply, which could eventually lead to more oil being produced and potentially lower gas prices over time. However, a fractured oil cartel could also make prices more unpredictable, meaning prices could rise or fall more sharply depending on global events.
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/ Technology
Big Tech reports big earnings… and bigger spending
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On Wednesday, four of the largest US companies, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, reported such great earnings that analysts dubbed it a “Big Tech earningspalooza,” as many of them increase AI spending.
Earnings explosion
While investors were closely watching profits, they were also watching how these companies are navigating the next phase of growth, particularly around AI, cloud computing, and advertising:
Alphabet soared after an 81% profit jump fueled by AI, with Google Cloud hitting $20 billion, well above expectations.
Amazon beat estimates as its cloud revenue jumped 28%, while advertising hit $17.24 billion, also topping expectations.
Microsoft, meanwhile, said it would likely hit $190 billion in spending this year, adding that it acquired 5 million new paid users for its Copilot AI tools.
Meta reported a better-than-expected $56 billion in revenue but said it would likely reach $145 billion in spending this year due to AI demands.
After the news, Alphabet rose 7% and Amazon 4%, while Meta fell around 6% and Microsoft roughly 2% as investors reacted to spending plans.
It was a big month for Big Tech: Analysts expect April to be tech stocks’ biggest month since April of 2020, which came at the start of the pandemic.
Why should you care?
The massive spending raises the risk of tradeoffs like layoffs, higher service costs, or more ads and monetization, while also making everyday tools (search, shopping, work software) faster and more powerful for consumers over time.
/ Economy
Jerome Powell (kind’ve) takes his exit from the Fed
Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images
I know a Jordan Belfort impression when I see one. After his final press conference as Federal Reserve chair this week, Jerome Powell said he would remain on the board as a governor, becoming the first to do so since 1948.
Why is he staying?
Jerome Powell said he will remain in his role until the federal investigation into the Fed building renovations is resolved. While the Department of Justice has dropped its criminal probe, the case has been referred to the Fed’s inspector general and could still be reopened.
Who’s next in line? Kevin Warsh was approved by the Senate Banking Committee yesterday morning as the next Fed chair, but it remains unclear whether the full Senate can confirm him before Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15.
As for actual economic news: The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, with Jerome Powell warning that inflation tied to the Iran war “hasn’t even peaked yet.” The 12-member vote saw four dissenters—the most since 1992—signaling growing divisions and raising the possibility of a rate cut at the June meeting under Kevin Warsh.
Why is this important?
Powell extending his time at the Fed will likely keep the central bank’s decisions that affect borrowing costs, like mortgages, credit cards, and loans, more insulated from political changes.
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/ Fast Facts
Catch up on this week’s weird news
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> A group of 22 monks returning from Thailand allegedly smuggled over 240 pounds of cannabis in false-bottom suitcases before getting arrested in Sri Lanka’s main airport. It’s the largest drug bust in the airport’s history.
> Movie theaters are now charging up to $50 for premium opening-night tickets for movies like Dune: Part Three, as the industry leans into high-end experiences for die-hard fans to make up for declining attendance.
> Scientists have created the first-ever “smell map,” which could help create therapies to treat loss of smell, like stem cell treatments or brain-computer interfaces, according to a new study published this week.
> Meta announced a deal with Overview Energy to purchase solar power collected in space and laser-beamed back to Earth, an experimental approach that could help power data centers overnight. See how it works here.
> A Massachusetts beekeeper was sentenced to jail after releasing a swarm of bees on deputies during an eviction, resulting in multiple stung officers and a jail sentence.
