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/ World

Trump rejects Iran’s most recent Hormuz deal

Samuel Corum / Sipa / Bloomberg via Getty Images

After President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal on Saturday, mediators began working to hold separate talks with the two countries on a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump said the talks could resume as soon as this week.

What did Iran propose?

At the UN conference last week, Iran said the Strait of Hormuz could return to “normal maritime passage” within a week if the US agrees to Tehran’s conditions. According to officials, the offer demanded that the US:

  • Lift its blockade on Iranian ports.

  • Release frozen Iranian assets.

  • Ease oil sanctions.

Then there’s the nuclear issue: The US has repeatedly made it clear that Iran must make changes to its nuclear program for a deal to be made. Earlier this month, UN inspectors warned that Iran has an unspecified amount of nuclear material and failed to cooperate with an investigation. A June ceasefire was supposed to buy the two sides 60 days to hammer out a nuclear agreement, but the deal later fell apart.

Despite all of that… a deal is still on the table. Trump says he expects negotiations with Iran to resume this week, and officials said “slight progress” has been made, even if major disagreements remain.

/ Why is this important? A deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz could significantly reduce pressure on oil, gas, diesel, and shipping costs. But if talks collapse again, high energy prices could stick around and keep inflation pressure on household budgets.

See what's changed, live data, what we're watching next, and more on our Watchlist.

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/ Money

Smart money is taking back Wall Street

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After dominating the stock market for the past few years, retail investors are once again taking a backseat to institutional investors.

Smart & Dumb Money

Retail investors, or everyday people trading their own money (dubbed “dumb money”), once made up a relatively small share of market activity. That changed during the pandemic, when they gained easier access to financial markets, sparking a retail-investing boom.

However, that trend is now reversing:

  • Everyday investors have pulled back from the market, with their share of S&P 500 trading falling more than 3 percentage points below its typical level over the past five years, per CNBC.

  • At the same time, Vanda Research says institutional investors have roughly tripled their options trading activity for September.

Alternate measures of retail trading activity, like those from the brokerage firm Charles Schwab, also show a decline in interest compared to the 2021 trading boom.

So, where is the dumb money going? Some are increasingly turning to AI tools to help manage their portfolios, while others are shifting toward bonds, where yields are at their highest levels in years. Through August, US bond funds attracted a net $625 billion this year, the strongest pace since 2010, according to Morningstar.

/ Why does this matter? High Treasury yields are giving everyday Americans better returns on safer options like CDs, savings accounts, and government bonds. But because retirement accounts still hold a lot of stocks, people could see bigger swings in their savings if large investors start pulling money out of the market.

Track financial stress, Social Security & retirement, inflation, and more with our Money index.

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NextGen News

🤖 OpenAI confirmed AI agents leaked users’ private pictures. The agents leaked 53 private images uploaded by ChatGPT users and were involved in more than 15 incidents involving unauthorized activity. Researchers also found the agents created nearly 1 million specially encoded links to not get caught, and even accessed US government websites. OpenAI says it is still investigating the full scope of what happened. Track this topic ->

🤝 US and China pledge to cut tariffs on goods. The two countries plan to drop tariffs on $60 billion worth of goods, including Chinese toys, US agricultural goods, wood, household appliances, and cosmetics. Both nations have said they will keep negotiating tariffs, investment barriers, and other trade issues. While the tariff cuts should eventually lower prices, a broader deal could drastically lower costs for businesses, farmers, and consumers. Track this topic ->

⛈ Deadly Nor’easter left over 100,000 without power. A powerful nor’easter battered the East Coast with heavy rain, damaging winds, and widespread flooding this weekend. Some areas were hit with anywhere from two to six inches of rain in a matter of hours, flooding roads and homes, while strong winds knocked out power for over 180,000 people at its peak. At least one person was reported dead due to a fallen tree. Track this topic ->

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/ Housing

Mortgage rates are likely to keep climbing

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The average 30-year mortgage rate is sitting at 7% for the first time since January of last year, according to Freddie Mac. Now, economists are debating just how much higher rates can rise.

What’s with the surge?

The spike followed the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike earlier this month, which was the central bank’s first increase in three years. Investors saw the hike coming and pushed Treasury bond yields higher, which dragged mortgage rates up with them (since they typically move together).

Experts see no reason that trend will stop:

  • Economists cited by Barron’s said, “there’s no reason to think that the rout [in bonds] couldn’t continue.”

  • In a severe scenario, that could push mortgage rates “to 8%, or even higher.”

How would that even happen? If the Iran war keeps driving up energy prices (which can keep inflation stubbornly high) while the US government continues borrowing heavily (which can push Treasury yields higher) mortgage rates could see an even bigger price boom.

It wasn’t always supposed to be this way: In February, mortgage rates fell below 6% for the first time since 2022, giving the housing market some early momentum. However, the Iran war quickly pushed rates back up, right as the crucial spring selling season crashed and burned.

/ Why should you care? If rates climb even higher, more Americans could be forced to buy cheaper homes, bring larger down payments, or postpone moving altogether at a time when affordability is already listed as the primary concern among prospective homeowners.

Our Interest Rates page shows updated figures for some of the most important rates and a quick calculator. Using current mortgage rates, the average price of a home in the U.S. would carry a monthly payment of about $3,190. Ouch.

/ Politics

SCOTUS allows Trump admin. to screen voters

Designed by NextGen News

The Supreme Court has lifted restrictions on a federal voter database before the midterm elections, allowing states to use the Trump administration’s new system to crackdown on noncitizen voting.

What does the database do?

The SAVE database, or Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements, was originally built to check immigration status for government benefits but has been revamped to include voter verification.

It isn’t without controversy:

  • Some voting-rights groups argue SAVE can contain outdated information, creating a risk that eligible voters could be flagged as noncitizens.

  • A federal judge previously blocked the system from taking effect because it now includes access to sensitive personal data like Social Security numbers and citizenship status.

Supporters say it only helps preserve election integrity: Some lawmakers argue that citizenship checks are a basic election-security measure, while the Trump administration said the system gives election officials a stronger tool for identifying noncitizens who may be improperly registered.

Will SAVE be used in the midterms? States aren’t required to use the system, and federal law prevents broad voter-roll purges within three months of an election. That means the system’s impact on the upcoming November midterms should be relatively limited.

/ How does this affect you? The Supreme Court’s decision means some Americans could face additional citizenship checks before voting, though it would be limited to a small number of voters in only some states. The number of non-citizens who vote would also likely decrease.

Track the latest updates on elections, voting rules, political party realignment, and more with our Politics index.

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/ Fast Facts

Catch up on this week’s weird news

elephant eat GIF by BBC Earth

GIF by bbcearth on Giphy

> A new study found wild elephants in Kenya appear to self-medicate with specific plants, joining other animals (like chimpanzees, bottlenose dolphins, some birds, and insects) that show signs of medicinal plant knowledge.

> The NFL is stepping up its drone defense technology after the league reported 10,852 drone violations over its stadiums between 2021 and 2025.

> OpenAI has uncovered more cases from this summer where its agents ventured beyond their assigned tasks, including unexpected activity on several US government websites.

> Cancer screening could eventually become as simple as a blood test, after FDA advisers endorsed a test designed to flag more than 50 cancers at once, including many with no routine screening today.

> Ants may owe their global takeover partly to “jumping genes”, mobile pieces of DNA that may have helped ants rapidly evolve into thousands of species after the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs.

> Scientists are building a real-time health monitor for the Amazon, combining satellites, AI, environmental DNA, and automated microphones to track wildlife across the rainforest.

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