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Cuba hit with multiple major blackouts after grid collapse

An aging infrastructure combined with a grim economic position has become deadly. Yesterday, Cuba suffered its fourth major blackout since Friday, leaving millions without power as Hurricane Oscar delayed attempts to restore power.

As Oscar made landfall on Sunday, efforts to turn on Cuba’s deteriorating electrical grid have failed. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has said 6 to 12 inches of rain are expected to fall through Wednesday morning, possibly extending the power outage for desperate Cubans who have been without power for days.

Why did it fail in the first place?

Cuba's biggest power plant shut down around noon on Friday, bringing down the country's electrical grid and forcing the closure of all public services, including schools. Cuba had seen continuous power outages in the past few years, but they usually only lasted a few hours.

• According to the nation’s Energy Ministry, around 10 million people had their power interrupted or shut off entirely, leaving millions without clean water and fresh food.

• The Associated Press has said the islandwide power failure is "unprecedented in modern times" apart from damage caused by hurricanes.

However, the power plant failure was only the beginning of a collection of major issues that had been reaching a boiling point for years, ready to spill over onto the unsuspecting population.

Cuban Calamity

Every time authorities attempted to restore power over the weekend, they were met with aging and underdeveloped electrical infrastructure, an ongoing economic crisis, US sanctions, and reduced fuel imports, all of which have contributed to the prolonged failure.

People are leaving: Cubans aren’t happy with the communist government’s assistance (or lack thereof) as more than a million citizens (over 10% of the population) have left the island between 2022 and 2023. An estimated 925,000 migrated to the US alone between 2021-2023.

2024 Election

Americans love to bet… especially on the next president

Boy if that’s true, Americans sure are going to love the sponsor of today’s newsletter. Billions of dollars are streaming into prediction markets as platforms battle with polls as gauges of who will be elected in November, a number that has only increased after the recent removal of an election betting ban.

Earlier this month, a federal appeals court ruled that Kalshi, a prediction market, could let people bet on US elections. Since then, billions have been spent trying to guess the next president.

• $3 million was bet on Kalshi in the first week, and over $12 million has been wagered on Kamala Harris and Donald Trump since, according to the founder.

Gambling Giants

The prediction market is now dominated by three platforms:

Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi.

Both Polymarket and PredictIt have been in business longer than Kalshi—Polymarket because it is an offshore cryptocurrency platform, and PredictIt because of a legal loophole.

• Polymarket has generated the most revenue, bringing in more than $2 billion from election bets alone.

  • Two weeks ago, nearly $500 million was bet on Polymarket.

• Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, said last week that the site’s user base has been “doubling day over day” since the ruling.

Indirect Indicators

Prediction markets have become an increasingly popular choice for Americans not only to bet on, but to use as an indicator of who will win the election. Using the prediction platforms as an indicator has become commonplace in tech and finance circles, as well as politics:

• In late August, Bloomberg expanded its terminal service (which is frequently used in the banking industry) to include Polymarket chances in addition to the conventional poll data.

• A staffer for a mayoral candidate in San Francisco recently used statistics from prediction markets and traditional polls.

• A prominent tech founder, not named by the Washington Post, reportedly looked at Polymarket to see how his preferred candidate was doing.

But if prediction markets are gaining more popularity as a measure of success, what happens to the age-old polls? The winner of the election will probably determine its fate.

Never tell me the odds

Polls have been a longstanding measure of predictability and prediction markets are the hot new indicator. But what does the data say?

• Polymarket has Trump up on Harris 62% to 38%, PredictIt shows Trump with a 56% chance of winning to Harris’s 49%, and Kalshi has Trump in the lead 57% to 43%. All data is as of yesterday.

• However, national polls cast a much closer battle, with Trump within two points of Harris.

So which is more accurate? It’s uncertain at this point. Proponents of prediction markets say it’s a better way to foresee political events as the markets respond to new information in real-time, plus, there is actually something at stake for people (money).

• Critics, however, argue that prediction markets can be manipulated more easily (similar to polls margins of error) and lack a historical record.

Opinions aside, all markets are volatile, and veteran investors argue a skewed market will naturally self-correct. In the end, only time will tell which numbers proved to foresee the future more fittingly come November.

Business

Unsubscribing just got a lot easier

Just not for my newsletter (jk please don’t try it). In an effort to make subscription services as simple to get rid of as they are to sign up for, the Federal Trade Commission finalized a new regulation late last week that makes it a requirement.

Click to Cancel

According to FTC chair Lina Khan, the "click to cancel" rule cuts down on the needless complexity of subscriptions, addressing common issues like misleading info and way-too-difficult cancellations. Khan says the rule will end up "saving Americans time and money."

Subscription-based services will now have to abide by these standards:

• Sign-up and cancellation need to take the same number of clicks.

• Customers must be able to cancel using the same methods as when they signed up.

• Free trials in particular need to be more transparent about auto and recurring charges.

  • This means they must get “informed consent” from the customer, which would likely be another box to check during sign-up.

The “click to cancel” rule will be applied in around six months, so be sure to double-check your account for unwanted subscription fees in the meantime.

Going forward: Subscription-based services will likely be rushing to change their subscription models since regulators will be able to sue them much easier under the new rule.

The Oracle, by Polymarket

The Oracle by Polymarket is news with skin in the game. This weekly newsletter gives you insights on global headlines from the world’s largest prediction market, powered by traders around the world with millions of dollars on the line. Every week, we break down how the market is interpreting major events—whether it’s politics, culture, or global news. See into the future with real-time odds from traders around the world who are betting on the future.

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Grab Bag

Walgreens forced to close nearly 1 out of 7 stores

Now where am I going to get expired peeps that have been sitting on the shelf for months? By 2027, Walgreens plans to close 1,200 of its stores in the US as pharmacies wrestle with their place for consumers who go to other retailers for convenience.

By the end of the next year, the retailer plans to close 500 locations.

New Direction

Under its new CEO, Tim Wentworth, CVS has changed its strategy and tried to revitalize the business. Wentworth wants the buy-it-all retailer to shift from his predecessor's primary care clinic investments.

But Walgreens isn’t alone in its struggles, and Wentworth needs to solve the issues that other drugstores are facing as well: reoccurring theft, lowering prescription reimbursement, and rising costs.

• In October of last year, Rite-Aid filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, announcing that it was closing 800 stores.

• In addition to the 5,000 employees it terminated in 2023, CVS stated earlier this month that it would lay off an additional 2,900 workers.

As pharmacies become increasingly scarce, many find themselves in “Pharmacy deserts,” miles away from any retailer able to offer them vital prescriptions.

All in all: Pharmacies like CVS are saying the rise of Amazon and other online retailers has led to a decrease in demand. The three massive pharmacy benefits managers (which serve as middlemen in prescription pricing negotiations) are also partially to fault for "squeezing" pharmacies by reducing reimbursement rates, according to an FTC report.

Best way to keep away tourists? Ban bar crawls

Who doesn’t love seeing a British guy puking on your mailbox at three in the morning? Organized bar crawls, a popular tourist activity that has brought in a lot of income for bars but caused frustration among locals and police alike, have been banned in Prague.

Barring Bar Buddies

The Czech capital is a popular destination to drink… Prague brought in over $5 billion in revenue through tourism in 2019, and bars were a big part of it. While the cash is nice, the unpleasantries that come with a bunch of intoxicated tourists have taken their toll.

• In 2023, over 7 million visitors came to the city for organized tours, which often included a bar crawl.

The ban will begin in November and will be enforced by police between 10 pm and 6 am. Those who violate the rule will be fined a minimum of $4,600. Adam Zabranský, a member of the city’s council said, “We don’t want to support cheap alco-tourism that’s unfortunately still quite common in Prague.”

However, the agencies that organize the bar crawls think that banning the practice will only bring in more mayhem. “Without the guides, the problems with noise will become even worse,” the Drunken Monkey, a bar crawl organizer, told the AP.

Prague isn’t the only one: Last year, Amsterdam launched a campaign called "Stay Away" to deter visitors from throwing drunken parties in the city, especially British men between the ages of 18 and 35. I wonder why it was that demographic.

Fast Facts

Dog Discussions: A $595 dog collar made by Personifi AI promises to allow you to have talks between you and your pet. It takes your dog's vitals and creates sentences using artificial intelligence.

Cup Controversy: The Ryder Cup was criticized by golf fans when it was revealed that match-day tickets for the event next year would cost around $750 each.

Raccoon Ransack: In broad daylight, 100 raccoons landed on a Washington woman's lawn, prompting her to dial 911.

Fake Fermentation: Six people were detained by police in Paris, Turin, and Milan on suspicion of operating a counterfeit wine ring that sold phony vintage wine for up to $13,500 a bottle.

Order Arrival: If you've been seeing more Cybertrucks on the road it’s because it no longer has a backlog of orders, meaning it can also now be purchased without a reservation.