🌎 Done Deal

US and EU announce long-awaited trade deal

And, in typical Trump fashion, it was made over a game of golf (seriously). On Sunday, the US and EU announced a trade deal, ending months of uncertainty between two of the world’s largest economies.

Trade tensions taper

The deal comes after the two powers, which account for nearly one-third of all global trade, broke their months-long deadlock and looming threats of 30% to 50% tariffs on European shipments.

While more details will come out later this week, these are the major changes under the new agreement:

• The EU’s 27 member countries will be charged a 15% baseline tariff on most goods, such as cars and pharmaceuticals.

• It also eliminates tariffs on items like aircraft and semiconductor equipment.

• Steel and aluminum will remain at 50%, and negotiations on products like wine are ongoing.

Additionally, the EU committed to invest $600 billion in the US, focusing on military equipment, along with $750 billion to secure liquid gas and nuclear energy. The moves highlight Europe’s broader strategy to diversify energy sources and fully phase out Russian gas by 2028.

Looking ahead: The pact stops a 30% tariff on EU goods that was set to take effect on Friday and follows Trump’s revised trade deals with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam (see tariff tracker).

Autonomous vehicles are better at driving than actual humans

Surprising? No. Concerning? Maybe. A peer-reviewed study analyzing Waymo’s fleet of self-driving vehicles found its robotaxis consistently surpass safety benchmarks, while human drivers, well, aren’t very good.

Just how good are they?

The study, which evaluated over 56.7 million driverless miles across Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin, found Waymo’s autonomous vehicles have a much lower rate of accidents than humans.

The safety improvements are quite dramatic. When comparing Waymo’s self-driving cars to human drivers:

• Crashes involving pedestrian injuries decreased by 92%, while injuries to cyclists and motorcyclists dropped 82%.

• Even more surprisingly, crashes with other vehicles at intersections—which is historically the leading source of driver injuries in the US—fell by 96%.

Across most categories, including serious crashes and airbag deployments, the drops were both significant and consistent. However, the study notes that a larger sample size is needed to confirm concrete benefits.

Looking ahead: Officials argue that the current results offer compelling evidence that autonomous vehicles can significantly reduce road injuries and fatalities, especially since the NHTSA estimated human error is responsible for many of the 39,345 deaths in US road crashes last year.

$1 billion of cutting-edge Nvidia chips were smuggled into China

Looks like GPUs are right next to Cuban cigars on the contraband list. Over $1 billion of high-tech semiconductor chips have been illegally imported into China, despite the Trump administration blocking sales to the country in the spring.

Smugglers paradise

The sellers primarily sent the shipments to the Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces and packaged the chips into “plug-and-play” server racks, ready for use in AI data centers.

All of Nvidia’s most advanced chips, including the B200, H100, and H200, are openly available online:

• Sellers are openly advertising the cutting-edge chips on social media, making them as easy to purchase as a new blender bottle on Amazon.

• Online videos show crates marked with Supermicro, Dell, and Asus—manufacturers that package Nvidia chips for data centers—hinting at possible leaks from legitimate supply chains.

Is it possible Nvidia is leaking them? It’s doubtful. The chipmaker firmly denied any involvement and noted that making data centers with black market parts is a “losing proposition,” as only authorized chips are serviced.

They’re fetching a pretty penny 

Nvidia’s B200, the hottest chip on the underground market, is fetching between $419,000 and $489,000 per eight-chip rack… around 50% higher than what US buyers typically pay.

• One Anhui-based company, Gate of the Era, is reported to have sold almost $400 million in B200 hardware.

As smugglers keep raking in the cash, US investigators are attempting to figure out how exactly the chips are getting to China in the first place. So far, they have one lead:

• Officials believe Southeast Asian hubs like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are functioning as middlemen for the smugglers.

• Meanwhile, the US is thinking about extending export restrictions on chips to the area to confirm its suspicions.

Looking ahead: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed last week that Nvidia got approval to resume selling its less-powerful H20 chip to China, which could dent some of the black-market for high-end semiconductors.

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US fertility rate drops to record low

The US needs a baby boom part two. The US fertility rate fell to a historic low last year, dropping under 1.6 children per woman, according to a new federal report.

Infertile future

According to the report (see data here), US fertility has been in a downward spiral since 1957, when it boasted 3.8 births per woman. For decades, the US was one of the only developed nations that maintained a replacement-level rate of 2.1.

Today, with a level of 1.6, the US is struggling to keep up:

• Rate declines occurred across most age groups, especially among teenagers and women in their early twenties, which also reached record lows.

Experts warn that the decline, driven by delayed childbirth, economic pressures, and shifting cultural norms, could have long-term effects on the nation’s workforce and economy.

Why the drop? Many women are having children later in life or just simply not having any at all, but it’s not just a US problem; birth rates are dropping worldwide (see chart).

The good news?

Despite the record low numbers, the overall number of births ticked up 1%, to just over 3.6 million babies, mainly due to population growth and immigration. Luckily, there were some other good stats:

• There was a significant increase in birth rates among those aged 40–44, who, for the first time, surpassed teenage birth rates.

• Birth rates also rose slightly for women aged 25 to 44.

What’s being done to help? The Trump administration has championed policies like expanded IVF access, “baby bonuses,” and government funding for educating women about their menstrual cycles.

The US may get a transcontinental railroad very soon

Just like bell-bottom jeans, trains are back in. Late last week, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern announced that they’re in advanced discussions for a potential merger that could forge the first transcontinental US railroad.

A $200 billion merger

Union Pacific says merging into a $200 billion rail giant would streamline shipping nationwide by eliminating the need to transfer goods between separate rail networks in the East and West.

Plus, it could give rise to America’s first ocean-to-ocean railway:

• The combined network would stretch from coast to coast, uniting Union Pacific's 32,200 miles across the western two-thirds of the country with Norfolk Southern’s nearly 19,500 miles in the east.

However, critics warn the merger would reduce the number of major Class I carriers from six to five, weakening competition and potentially spiking prices for customers like agribusinesses and manufacturers.

It’s likely to face regulatory scrutiny, too: The merger would have to get approval from the Surface Transportation Board and the Justice Department. Since 2001, regulators have required rail mergers to prove they enhance competition, not weaken it, setting a high hoop to jump through.

FAST FACTS
Catch up on this week’s weird news

Basic Books: In a survey of more than 4,000 teachers, 6 out of the top 10 most taught books in US classrooms today (see here) were also the most taught in 1989. Get back to your Shakesphere, kids.

Epstein Enlister: The DOJ spent six hours asking Ghislaine Maxwell “about 100 different people” at a federal courthouse. Meanwhile, President Trump said he has “no plans” to pardon her.

Social Strategy: Companies are asking “professional Redditors” to create seemingly authentic posts in subreddits to gain more exposure, forgoing traditional ad campaigns.

Rat Arrest: A 41‑year‑old Chuck E. Cheese employee was arrested in full costume during a child’s birthday party after allegedly using a stolen debit card. I guess you could say he isn’t a rat.

Toon Trademark: The New York Jets filed to trademark “Gotham City Football” last year, but were denied by the US Patent and Trademark Office. Maybe if they put Batman in at QB they’d have a better season.